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The leaderboard

Every model at every reasoning effort (76 cells), in both settings, with the research-window and sealed 2024 scores and the 2024 portfolio metrics kept together.

Live Arena Leaderboard arXiv 机器之心

Total score by reasoning effort

One bar per model and effort, with Kepler-1 as the reference line. Higher effort does not reliably raise the score: several models do best at low or medium effort, in both settings.

Iterative research · total score out of 100 less effort more
Kepler-1 · 77.56
51.29
GPT-6 Astra
51.14
GPT-6 Sol
47.58
GPT-5.6 Terra
44.28
Claude Opus 5.5
43.04
Gemini 3.8 Flash
40.93
Claude Sonnet 5.5
38.91
GLM-5.3
38.31
Kimi K3
36.45
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash
One-shot generation · total score out of 100 less effort more
Kepler-1 · 77.56
42.61
Claude Opus 5.5
42.14
GPT-5.6 Terra
40.24
Claude Sonnet 5.5
38.02
GLM-5.3
35.91
Gemini 3.8 Flash
35.22
GPT-6 Astra
32.15
GPT-6 Sol
32.01
Kimi K3
29.92
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash

Iterative research

The model researches on 2022–2023 with bounded feedback on its candidates, then commits one strategy.

Quant Arena Iterative research leaderboard
# Model Effort Total Sin Sout 2024 ARR Excess RankIC Sharpe MDD
— Kepler-1 Einsia AI — 77.56 77.22 77.70 94.0% +76.9 0.085 2.98 −15.9%
1 GPT-6 Astra Low 47.22 58.10 42.56 2.3% −14.8 0.056 0.22 −25.7%
GPT-6 Astra Medium 47.17 48.09 46.78 9.8% −7.2 0.044 0.53 −17.9%
GPT-6 Astra High 43.70 52.34 39.99 −0.9% −17.9 0.053 0.11 −26.3%
GPT-6 Astra XHigh 51.29 53.94 50.16 10.7% −6.3 0.101 0.86 −6.8%
GPT-6 Astra Max 50.63 52.94 49.64 11.2% −5.9 0.082 0.81 −7.0%
2 GPT-6 Sol Low 38.51 48.85 34.09 1.4% −15.7 −0.020 0.19 −30.1%
GPT-6 Sol Medium 49.80 44.14 52.23 18.4% +1.4 0.018 0.65 −35.9%
GPT-6 Sol High 42.89 52.16 38.92 −2.5% −19.5 0.042 0.10 −37.4%
GPT-6 Sol XHigh 51.14 55.50 49.26 8.6% −8.4 0.053 1.89 −2.8%
GPT-6 Sol Max 45.31 46.49 44.81 8.1% −9.0 0.018 0.41 −30.0%
3 GPT-5.6 Terra None 33.09 26.67 35.85 2.4% −14.7 −0.042 0.22 −24.9%
GPT-5.6 Terra Low 41.19 50.58 37.17 −4.6% −21.7 0.022 0.02 −31.4%
GPT-5.6 Terra Medium 39.50 43.17 37.93 −4.3% −21.3 0.036 0.00 −29.0%
GPT-5.6 Terra High 41.54 44.72 40.17 0.0% −17.0 0.035 0.14 −29.9%
GPT-5.6 Terra XHigh 44.77 50.60 42.28 9.9% −7.1 −0.012 0.44 −32.6%
GPT-5.6 Terra Max 47.58 50.37 46.39 8.4% −8.7 0.026 0.42 −28.8%
4 Claude Opus 5.5 Low 30.15 37.76 26.89 −29.4% −46.4 0.035 −1.21 −44.1%
Claude Opus 5.5 Medium 44.28 56.78 38.92 4.4% −12.7 −0.002 0.29 −32.7%
Claude Opus 5.5 High 39.89 52.87 34.32 −11.2% −28.3 0.039 −0.25 −32.7%
Claude Opus 5.5 XHigh 41.92 54.48 36.53 −7.0% −24.0 0.043 −0.08 −33.2%
Claude Opus 5.5 Max 41.39 50.41 37.52 −4.0% −21.1 0.030 −0.03 −25.1%
5 Gemini 3.8 Flash Low 41.46 53.44 36.32 −6.2% −23.3 0.037 −0.04 −35.8%
Gemini 3.8 Flash Medium 43.04 53.58 38.52 −2.9% −19.9 0.045 0.06 −33.8%
Gemini 3.8 Flash High 35.39 48.90 29.61 −19.1% −36.2 0.022 −0.49 −38.5%
6 Claude Sonnet 5.5 Low 34.97 47.91 29.43 −9.5% −26.6 −0.009 −0.13 −35.5%
Claude Sonnet 5.5 Medium 39.42 43.39 37.73 −3.5% −20.6 0.041 −0.02 −24.3%
Claude Sonnet 5.5 High 40.50 54.11 34.67 −9.0% −26.1 0.044 −0.19 −34.7%
Claude Sonnet 5.5 XHigh 40.10 44.68 38.13 −0.5% −17.6 0.015 0.15 −35.0%
Claude Sonnet 5.5 Max 40.93 57.33 33.90 −12.2% −29.2 0.045 −0.23 −36.1%
7 GLM-5.3 High 38.67 49.31 34.11 −8.6% −25.7 0.018 −0.14 −31.6%
GLM-5.3 Max 38.91 47.96 35.03 −7.8% −24.9 0.046 −0.18 −27.8%
8 Kimi K3 Low 38.31 45.87 35.07 −8.5% −25.6 0.027 −0.10 −36.4%
Kimi K3 High 31.43 36.85 29.10 −20.0% −37.0 0.036 −0.84 −36.9%
Kimi K3 Max 31.86 39.87 28.43 −25.6% −42.7 0.041 −1.14 −39.9%
9 DeepSeek V4.1 Flash None 22.00 21.21 22.33 −24.1% −41.2 −0.022 −1.03 −29.5%
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash Low 36.45 48.46 31.30 −5.7% −22.7 −0.009 −0.06 −30.3%
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash High 35.97 46.02 31.67 −11.3% −28.4 0.015 −0.25 −34.0%
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash Max 35.90 42.49 33.08 −11.0% −28.1 0.037 −0.28 −34.2%

One-shot generation

The model writes one strategy in a single pass, without research-window feedback.

Quant Arena One-shot generation leaderboard
# Model Effort Total Sin Sout 2024 ARR Excess RankIC Sharpe MDD
— Kepler-1 Einsia AI — 77.56 77.22 77.70 94.0% +76.9 0.085 2.98 −15.9%
1 Claude Opus 5.5 Low 35.04 43.21 31.53 −4.5% −21.6 −0.011 0.00 −33.0%
Claude Opus 5.5 Medium 42.61 47.19 40.65 5.6% −11.5 −0.001 0.34 −21.0%
Claude Opus 5.5 High 36.07 39.68 34.52 −7.5% −24.5 0.020 −0.14 −29.7%
Claude Opus 5.5 XHigh 39.13 49.05 34.88 −9.9% −26.9 0.040 −0.20 −35.0%
Claude Opus 5.5 Max 39.70 42.07 38.69 −3.7% −20.8 0.046 0.03 −35.9%
2 GPT-5.6 Terra None 42.14 46.56 40.25 9.5% −7.6 −0.010 0.44 −27.8%
GPT-5.6 Terra Low 27.82 26.59 28.35 −10.3% −27.4 −0.007 −0.24 −25.7%
GPT-5.6 Terra Medium 21.01 20.44 21.25 −32.4% −49.4 −0.010 −1.51 −34.1%
GPT-5.6 Terra High 40.61 42.88 39.64 6.2% −10.9 −0.001 0.35 −27.5%
GPT-5.6 Terra XHigh 34.21 42.94 30.46 −9.8% −26.8 0.000 −0.17 −33.6%
GPT-5.6 Terra Max 20.98 20.98 20.97 −32.3% −49.3 −0.009 −1.60 −32.6%
3 Claude Sonnet 5.5 Low 37.75 42.41 35.76 1.1% −16.0 −0.007 0.19 −30.3%
Claude Sonnet 5.5 Medium 33.82 41.81 30.39 −11.5% −28.6 0.002 −0.21 −35.5%
Claude Sonnet 5.5 High 40.24 44.28 38.50 1.4% −15.6 0.010 0.20 −32.1%
Claude Sonnet 5.5 XHigh 37.05 47.90 32.40 −14.3% −31.3 0.029 −0.33 −36.0%
Claude Sonnet 5.5 Max 33.89 41.19 30.77 −14.8% −31.9 0.018 −0.33 −36.9%
4 GLM-5.3 High 38.02 52.54 31.79 −4.2% −21.3 −0.023 0.05 −37.3%
GLM-5.3 Max 31.46 34.70 30.07 −15.4% −32.4 0.022 −0.51 −32.1%
5 Gemini 3.8 Flash Low 27.75 21.26 30.53 −12.1% −29.1 0.005 −0.41 −23.5%
Gemini 3.8 Flash Medium 35.91 35.62 36.04 1.6% −15.4 −0.006 0.19 −23.8%
Gemini 3.8 Flash High 30.26 25.93 32.11 −5.4% −22.5 −0.003 −0.06 −24.6%
6 GPT-6 Astra Low 30.08 35.05 27.95 −11.2% −28.3 −0.010 −0.28 −30.3%
GPT-6 Astra Medium 31.02 36.73 28.57 −9.7% −26.7 −0.012 −0.20 −30.3%
GPT-6 Astra High 35.22 38.27 33.92 −4.8% −21.9 0.007 −0.03 −30.9%
GPT-6 Astra XHigh 30.30 38.46 26.80 −16.7% −33.8 −0.002 −0.48 −34.7%
GPT-6 Astra Max 31.47 40.13 27.75 −18.3% −35.3 0.007 −0.54 −34.8%
7 GPT-6 Sol Low 32.15 38.29 29.52 −7.6% −24.7 −0.014 −0.08 −32.2%
GPT-6 Sol Medium 22.60 22.62 22.59 −31.4% −48.4 −0.006 −1.31 −34.1%
GPT-6 Sol High 23.15 21.07 24.04 −17.4% −34.4 −0.020 −0.51 −29.6%
GPT-6 Sol XHigh 23.29 23.84 23.05 −19.0% −36.1 −0.022 −0.60 −29.6%
GPT-6 Sol Max 22.31 24.08 21.55 −23.7% −40.7 −0.018 −0.98 −32.5%
8 Kimi K3 Low 31.58 38.58 28.58 −13.4% −30.5 0.000 −0.34 −33.8%
Kimi K3 High 32.01 37.89 29.48 −20.5% −37.6 0.038 −0.84 −38.6%
Kimi K3 Max 31.65 40.87 27.70 −20.3% −37.3 0.016 −0.86 −35.1%
9 DeepSeek V4.1 Flash None 20.48 22.01 19.82 −34.1% −51.1 −0.015 −1.79 −37.5%
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash Low 29.36 34.21 27.28 −17.4% −34.4 0.001 −0.49 −33.3%
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash High 29.63 37.51 26.25 −25.4% −42.4 0.010 −0.92 −39.5%
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash Max 29.92 35.95 27.34 −11.9% −29.0 −0.008 −0.42 −26.7%

Reading the tables

Total
Overall score, combining Sin and Sout and weighted toward Sout.
Sin
Score on the 2022–2023 research window.
Sout
Score on the sealed 2024 window.
2024 metrics
Annualised return, excess over the equal-weight market (pp), RankIC, Sharpe ratio and maximum drawdown, cash account.

Models are ordered by their best effort, and rows run from less to more effort. Bold marks each model's best effort. Not every model exposes every effort level. Kepler-1 is a proprietary strategy developed by Einsia AI; its construction is not disclosed.

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